Government Shutdown?

Congress has until January 30th to pass six more appropriations bills to avoid a partial government shutdown. Last week, the Senate passed the three-bill minibus that cleared the House on January 8. Once the President signs it, six of the 12 appropriations bills will become law: Agriculture, Commerce-Justice-State, Energy-Water, Interior, Legislative Branch, and Military Construction-Veterans Affairs.

The House continued its progress towards full FY 2026 government funding by passing another two-bill minibus last Wednesday, which includes Financial Services-General Government and National Security-State (formerly State-Foreign Operations). As with the prior minibus, Republican leaders barely secured enough votes from their party to pass the rule governing floor debate, which allowed for consideration of two amendments offered by far-right members. Both amendments failed to gain a simple majority. The House passed the minibus by a vote of 341-79.

House appropriators released bipartisan text for a final minibus comprising the remaining four appropriations bills: Defense, Homeland Security, Labor-Health and Human Services, and Transportation-Housing and Urban Development. These bills account for nearly 90 percent of total federal discretionary spending and historically face more difficulty passing due to their coverage of politically contentious programs and inclusion of billions of dollars in earmarks. The minibus also includes extensions of various expired federal programs. Division E extends authorization for the National Flood Insurance Program, the National Cybersecurity Protection System Act, the Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act, and the African Growth and Opportunity Act, as well as the Haiti-HOPE trade programs. Additionally, this Division includes language permitting the administration to increase the total number of H-2B visas. Division F encompasses several health care extenders, many of which have enjoyed bipartisan support in the past.

Republican leaders aim to bring the new minibus to a vote late this week, planning two separate votes: one on the contentious funding for the Department of Homeland Security and another on the remaining provisions. The top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee has acknowledged that a significant percentage of their party might vote against the Homeland Security part of the bill due to insufficient measures to curb ICE immigration enforcement activities. However, since Democrats have indicated that they do not want even a partial government shutdown, it is assumed Congress would continue funding Homeland Security agencies and programs via a continuing resolution if the new spending provisions cannot pass.