Status of FY 2026 Government Funding
As a reminder, the House-passed continuing resolution (CR) to temporarily extend government funding at current levels is set to last through November 21. Although this timeframe might have been sufficient for negotiating and passing some appropriations bills had the CR been enacted into law in September, the prolonged government shutdown suggests that Congress may need more time. Last week, Senate Majority Leader Thune (R-SD) indicated that the House would need to reconvene and pass a new CR with a later end-date. The duration of any new CR remains a point of contention among Republicans, with the more conservative faction advocating for an extension through April 2026 or beyond, based on their belief that new spending bills will not reduce federal expenditures below current levels. Conversely, House and Senate appropriators favor a shorter duration, recognizing that funding the government via a CR curtails their ability to set spending levels and priorities, including earmarks. House leadership has also insisted on avoiding a CR deadline that coincides with a holiday.
To date, House Speaker Johnson (R-LA) has resisted calls to bring the House back into session. However, the potential need for a new CR complicates this strategy. If Johnson does reconvene the House to consider a longer-term CR, it is likely he could secure its passage with the White House's assistance. The larger question, however, is whether and when any CR could pass the Senate. This debate is further complicated by the fact that Congress is far from enacting any appropriations bills. The House has passed only three of the 12 appropriations bills, while the Senate has passed just two. The only measure passed by both chambers thus far is the Military Construction-Veterans Affairs bill, typically the least controversial.
All Senate Appropriations Committee bills set spending levels higher than those approved by the House Committee, necessitating negotiation and passage of compromise versions. Passing any appropriations bills in the Senate, which requires 60 votes, is increasingly challenging in the current political climate. Senate GOP leadership continues to bring the House-passed CR to the floor for re-votes, but support for and against the measure has remained unchanged since September 30. Majority Leader Thune has not pressured Democrats with late-night or weekend votes, and it was only last week that he compelled Democrats to vote on a bill (S. 3012) funding federal employees excepted from furlough and forced to work without pay. The initial procedural vote on this measure failed, 54-45, with only Sens. Fetterman (D-PA), Ossoff (D-GA), and Warnock (D-GA) supporting it. Most Democrats opposed the measure, arguing it would grant too much authority to President Trump and the White House Office of Management and Budget over which federal workers to pay.
Two Democratic Senators proposed bills to pay all employees for the shutdown period and block further layoffs (S. 3039) or to pay all federal workers for missed pay from October 1 to the date of enactment (S. 3043), but Republicans blocked consideration of these measures.
The resolution of this situation remains uncertain. Without a shutdown-related crisis, it seems unlikely to be resolved this week. The next potential pressure points are November 1, when military members might miss their first paycheck, funding for food assistance programs (SNAP and WIC) could start running out, and the start of ACA open enrollment could highlight dramatically increased health insurance premiums. Air traffic controllers missing another paycheck this week could lead to sickouts, resulting in flight delays and cancellations that might pressure both parties to reopen the government.
Elections scheduled for November 4 in several states give Democrats reasons to hold firm, but they might declare victory afterward. President Trump could offer a way out by opening negotiations on health care issues and making assurances regarding rescissions that might satisfy Democrats. Alternatively, he could push Republicans to change the rules and allow spending bills to pass in the Senate by a simple majority vote. While some Republican Senators oppose this, Senate Minority Leader Schumer (D-NY) and other Democrats might find it politically advantageous if the President forced Republicans to take this step.