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The U.S. labor market weakened unexpectedly in July, with employers cutting 23,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The decline was significantly below expectations, as economists forecasted an increase of roughly 83,000 jobs. Despite the job losses, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, compared with expectations that it would remain at 4.2%. The report points to continued softening in the labor market and raises fresh questions about the strength of the broader U.S. economy.

2026 Election Update: Senate and House Control Remain Competitive

With the 2026 elections approaching, control of Congress remains up for grabs, with both parties facing different paths to securing majorities.

  • Senate
    • Republicans currently hold 53 seats, while Democrats hold 45, with two independents caucusing with Democrats, giving the Democratic caucus 47 members.
    • Democrats would need to gain four Republican-held seats to reach the 51 seats needed for an outright majority. A 50-50 Senate would not be sufficient because the vice president holds the tie-breaking vote.
    • The Senate map presents a significant challenge for Democrats, who would need to win multiple Republican-held seats in states that have traditionally been difficult for Democratic candidates. Alaska, Maine, Ohio and Texas are among the states receiving attention as potential battlegrounds.
    • Republicans, meanwhile, are defending a larger number of seats overall, creating opportunities for Democrats but also giving Republicans a relatively strong starting position. Both Democratic and Republican strategists expect Democrats to make gains but face an uphill climb to an outright Senate majority.
  • House
    • The House currently stands at 218 Republicans, 212 Democrats and one independent, with four vacancies.
    • Based on the current configuration, Democrats would need a net gain of three seats to reach 218 and secure a majority.
    • The House contest is expected to be highly competitive. Republicans enter the election with a favorable political map, including a greater number of Democratic-held or Democratic-targeted districts in areas that supported President Trump in the last presidential election than Republican-held districts in areas that supported Kamala Harris.
    • Recent redistricting changes could further strengthen the Republican position in several districts, with estimates suggesting Republicans could gain as many as six to nine additional seats from the changes.
    • Despite those structural advantages, Republican leaders and strategists continue to acknowledge that the party faces a substantial risk of losing its House majority. The relatively narrow margin means that even a small shift in the national political environment could determine control of the chamber.

The 2026 congressional elections are shaping up as closely contested races for both chambers. Democrats face a steeper mathematical challenge in the Senate, while the House could be decided by a small number of competitive districts. With relatively narrow margins and several key races in play, turnout, candidate recruitment and the broader national political environment will likely play an important role in determining control of Congress.